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Prices of ship-breaking melting scrap in Gujarat's Alang market decreased by INR 200/t on 11 Jan'25, according to BigMint. HMS (80:20) was assessed at INR 33,000/t ($383/t) ex-yard. Weak demand for semi-finished and finished steel during yesterday's trading session led to subdued scrap procurement, compelling suppliers to reduce their prices today.

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India: Melting scrap prices drop by INR 300/t d-o-d in Alang

Ship-breaking melting scrap prices in Gujarat's Alang market dropped by INR 300/t d-o-d on 10 Jan'25. According to BigMint's assessment, HMS (80:20) stood at INR 33,200/t ($387/t) exy. During yesterday's trading session, prices of semi-finished and finished steel dropped by approximately INR 200-600/t in the region, driven by weak demand. Subdued scrap trade levels led suppliers to reduce their offers today.

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India’s MOIL eyes global expansion with plans in Africa

MOIL, India’s largest manganese ore producer, is planning its first overseas venture by exploring opportunities in Gabon and South Africa. The state-owned company, under the Ministry of Steel, has completed due diligence in Gabon and is preparing to sign government-to-government MoUs for manganese ore exploration and mining. Discussions for similar projects are underway in South Africa.
MOIL, which produces 50% of India’s manganese ore, aims to expand its footprint by assessing reserves and commercial feasibility for mining in these regions. According to CMD Ajit Kumar Saxena, the company is also eyeing opportunities in Australia and Brazil.
Domestically, MOIL is investing in both brownfield and greenfield projects, with significant expansions planned in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. Operating 10 mines across Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, MOIL reported a 4.5% year-on-year production increase, reaching 13.3 lakh tons in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2025.

Industry News

India’s expansion plans to reshape Asia’s stainless steel and raw materials markets

India's ambitious expansion plans for the stainless steel sector over the next two decades have the potential to transform Asia's ferro-chrome and nickel pig iron stainless raw materials markets, sources told Fastmarkets in the week to Tuesday January 7

India aims to expand the stainless steel capacity to 9.3-9.5 million tonnes by 2030, then to 12.5-12.7 million tonnes by 2040 and finally to 19-20 million tonnes by 2047, according to a report published by Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA).

The sector’s capacity was 6.6-6.8 million tonnes in 2022. The expansion plans are based on anticipated economic growth and a potential rise in demand, the ISSDA said in the report.

And, according to the Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd (CRISIL), India aspires to become a $40 trillion economy by 2047, with sectors such as construction, infrastructure and manufacturing all driving up demand for stainless steel.CRISIL said it expects stainless steel consumption to increase from the current 2.5 kg per capita to 6.6-6.8 kg per capita by 2030, to 8-9 kg per capita by 2040 and to 11-12 kg per capita by 2047.

In the medium term, India’s leading stainless steel producer, Jindal Stainless, plans to commission an additional 1.0-1.1 million tonnes of stainless flat steel production capacity in 2025, the ISSDA said.

Asia stainless steel trade flow to change

China and Indonesia are currently the major exporters of stainless steel in Asia and India is one of the major buyers.But market participants told Fastmarkets they expect the increase in India’s stainless steel production to significantly change trade flows across the whole Asian market.

China exported 120,653 tonnes of cold rolled stainless flat steel up to 0.5 mm thick to India in January to November in 2024, accounting for 27% of China’s total 438,853 tonnes of exports, according to Chinese customs data.“The potential decline in Indian imports of Chinese stainless steel, although not expected in the [immediate future], will see Chinese exporters seek out alternative markets – particularly those that do not levy tariffs on Chinese products,” an exporter in China said.

And an exporter in Indonesia concurred.

“The current supply of stainless steel in India falls short of demand, so it is doubtful that supply will catch up within the next few years,” the Indonesian exporter told Fastmarkets. “Consequently, India is likely to continue importing stainless steel.

“But in terms of [India’s] long-term strategy, it is essential for it to investigate [the scale of] demand for other varieties of stainless steel – beyond the currently most-exported stainless flat steel,” the exporter added.

The role of tariffs

India plans to impose tariffs on steel products to support the development of its domestic steel mills, including those producing stainless steel. And that will force exporters in China and Indonesia to reduce exports to India and look to buyers elsewhere, such as those in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

“The type 200 stainless steel exported from China will be influenced by the possible tariffs because China and India are the two major producers [of this grade] and are competitors in the international market,” a second exporter in China said.

And the Indonesian exporter said: “As the biggest supplier of type 300 stainless steel, Indonesia’s exports will also be under downward pressure from the potential tariffs.”

Declining ferro-chrome exports

India is one of the major ferro-chrome producing countries in the world to use locally-mined chrome ore, Fastmarkets understands.

And India’s ferro-chrome capacity is high enough to support the stainless steel expansion plan, but it may have to diversify to ensure its supplies, according to sources.

“Around 50% of ferro-chrome produced in India is [currently] exported to the seaborne market,” an Indian ferro-chrome source said. “The producers will reduce those exports and supply more to local buyers, in line with the expansion of the downstream stainless steel industry in India.”

Another ferro-chrome source said: “It will not be a problem to cater for the stainless steel expansion plan [in India], but sufficient access to supplies of chrome ore may be an issue.”

The same source added that India’s higher stainless steel capacity may attract supplies of chrome ore from international miners to fill any shortages.

Increasing imports of nickel-containing feedstock

With no known domestic sources of the key stainless raw material nickel, Indian steel producers are heavily reliant on imports. And market participants told Fastmarkets they expect nickel consumption and imports to India to grow further as it implements the stainless steel expansion plans.

In the first 10 months of 2024, India imported 178,527 tonnes of nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferro-nickel from Indonesia – the world’s largest nickel producer – a 143.47% surge from the same period in 2023, when about 73,300 tonnes were imported, according to the latest customs figures.

The need for nickel supplies has driven Indian stainless steel producers to invest outside the country to secure supplies, sources said.

Jindal Stainless, for instance, commissioned a 200,000 tonnes per year NPI smelter in Indonesia’s Halmahera Islands in August 2024, in a joint venture with Indonesia’s New Yaking. Jindal Stainless said the NPI produced will have an average nickel content of 14%.

“The growth in India’s imports of nickel-containing feedstock and related investments are directly related to the growth in its stainless steel sector,” a China-based nickel source said.

“India’s ambitious [stainless steel] expansion plans will further boost the country’s nickel consumption, which means India will purchase more raw materials, including ferro-nickel and NPI, from Indonesia and other countries,” the source added.

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Scenario Modeling in 2025

The approach combines qualitative and quantitative methods for shifting variables.

Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, scenario modeling allows stakeholders to test and measure the financial ramifications of a set of alternatives and draw data-driven conclusions to navigate or leverage threat or opportunity. Because reliable insight comes from identifying and measuring the effects of various what ifs, it’s important to create and compare multiple iterations. Plans can be continually evaluated and refined as situations change or progress.

Automotive suppliers, for example, employ scenario modeling to blend customer releases to the plants against order volumes, vehicle inventories and vehicle sales. This is especially beneficial in balancing procurement and production with inadequate sales projections and vulnerable supply lines.

For instance, automotive components suppliers use scenario modeling to forecast the financial impact of manufacturers pivoting from electric to hybrid vehicles. Scenario modeling can help determine the need to shift resources away from electric vehicle programs being cancelled or postponed, and the implications for suppliers’ program revenue, parts volume, workforce staffing and other profitability variables.

Scenario modeling can also prepare manufacturers for a wide variety of potential events. To what degree, for example, would a call to military action deplete a manufacturer’s pool of skilled laborers, and how would this impact production and profitability? What would the financial impact be of the loss of a plant due to fire? What would be the flow of inventory should a major port become blocked? How would a flawed product release affect consumer demand?

How It Works

In scenario modeling, analysts change variables, observing the impact of these inputs on key metrics to explore potential outcomes. Ideally, multiple versions of these models are created to account for different or extreme scenarios, such as optimistic, pessimistic and worst cases.

Identifying and quantifying key parameters that influence outcomes early in the process ensure a comprehensive and accurate representation of the system being modeled. Multiple attributes, such as economic, resources, technical factors and so on must align with primary objectives and be interconnected to simulate realistic conditions.

By using a range of variables and scenarios, models account for potential variability, uncertainty and dependency. Robust data sources, consistency in measurement and sensitivity analysis are essential to refining attributes and predicting complex outcomes accurately. Sensitivity analysis assesses how changing one variable affects outcome. This identifies which variables have the most significant impact on the result, helping decision-makers better understand risks, trade-offs and impacts.

Life Style and Management

Forget onions, you'll soon need more food to stay healthy As you scramble to buy some onions for your family despite skyrocketing prices, a rising Body Mass Index (BMI) and an increasing body height is leading to a marked increase in global calorie requirements globally, find researchers. In most countries, average body height and body size is increasing and more needs to be eaten to maintain the higher weight. Even if both BMI and height were to remain constant, global calorie requirements would still increase by more than 60 per cent by 2100 because of population growth, said the team from the University of Gottingen in Germany in a paper published in the journal PLOS ONE. The development economist Professor Stephan Klasen and his then doctoral Lutz Depenbusch have designed a scenario to investigate how calorie intake could develop between 2010 and 2100. Earlier changes in the Netherlands and Mexico were used as a benchmark. "The developments in these countries are very pronounced," says Depenbusch, "but they do represent a realistic scenario." With rising BMI, as observed in Mexico, and increasing height, as seen in the Netherlands, there would be a further increase in calorie intake by more than 18 per cent. This means, the increase in global calorie requirements between 2010 and 2100 would be one third larger, reaching a total increase of nearly 80 per cent, said the researchers. If global food production does not meet this increased need, this problem will not be controlled by a corresponding decrease in BMI. While richer people will be able to maintain their eating habits, the poor would suffer greatly from higher prices due to increased demand. "This would lead to increased consumption of cheap food, often rich in calories but poor in nutrients," said Depenbusch. "As a result, body weight among the poor would continue to rise alongside malnutrition and poorer health outcomes."

Jokes All the Way......

The Institute of Indian Foundrymen

The Institute of Indian Foundrymen