Daily Pour

Date: 22/12/2025   Issue No.: 3782/25-26

Compiled By: Aarti Ghag, Executive Officer - WR

B. Ramchandran, Chennai

IIF News

Dear all,

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IIF Annual Awards 2024-25 

The Awards Committee has agreed to extend the last date of receipt of nominations on request up to 31st December 2025 .

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Thought of the Day

News Letter Supported By

Today's Top Raw Materials Headlines

*** India: BigMint's ferrous scrap index rises INR 400/t d-o-d; drops INR 300/t w-o-w

*** India: Melting scrap prices inch up by INR 100/t d-o-d in Alang

*** Chinese scrap prices firm on improved steelmaking margins

*** India demand holds as imported scrap costs rise

*** India: Mill scale prices remain steady across regions

*** India: Stainless steel scrap market remains subdued amid weak finished demand, sufficient inventory

*** India: Bids rise in SAIL-RSP's latest pig iron auction

*** India: Imported high-grade manganese ore prices ease slightly due to weak alloys prices

Raw Material News

India Sets 5-Year AD Duty on Electrical Steel Imports from China

The Indian government announced it would impose an anti-dumping duty on imports of cold-rolled non-oriented electrical steel from China on December 18. According to the Directorate General of Trade Remedies notification, the duty rate ranges from $223.82 to $414.92 per ton. However, cold-rolled full hard silicon electric steel used to produce CRNO is excluded from the AD duty. The DGTR investigation found the subject products were dumped, causing injury to the domestic industry, thus recommending imposition of the duty.

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India: Melting scrap prices increase by INR 100/t d-o-d in Alang

Ship-breaking melting scrap prices in Gujarat's Alang increased by INR 100/t d-o-d on 20 Dec, as per BigMint's assessment. HMS (80:20) prices were assessed at INR 31,000/t ($346/t) exy. Semi-finished and finished steel prices increased by INR 200-500/t in the region during yesterday's trading session. Moreover, improved scrap buying inquiries led suppliers to revise their offers upward today. Meanwhile, Alang scrap prices remained flat w-o-w.

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India: Melting scrap prices inch up by INR 100/t d-o-d in Alang

Ship-breaking melting scrap prices in Gujarat's Alang market inched up by INR 100/t d-o-d on 19 Dec'25, as per BigMint's assessment. HMS (80:20) stood at INR 30,900/t ($343/t) exy. The region witnessed moderately strong demand for both semi-finished and finished steel in the previous trading session. This, along with improved buying inquiries for scrap from Bhavnagar-based mills, prompted suppliers to raise their offers today.

Industry News

Al industry faces structural Europe decline

The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power.

Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026.

The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year.

But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context.

The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output.

Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs.

"The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging."

Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper.

"I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels.

"I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck."

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World Bank predicts steady 2026 metals pricing

The multinational banking organization predicts firm nonferrous metals prices in 2026 and 2027 based on modest demand growth and tightening supply conditions.

The metals and minerals price index of the Washington-based World Bank Group steadied in November, with the organization predicting more of the same for 2026 and 2027. The index is comprised of six nonferrous metals—aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc—plus iron ore.

The November stability (actually a 0.5 percent increase) occurred after a 6 percent index increase in October, building on a 4 percent rise in the third quarter of 2025, according to World Bank. The institution says the metals price gains are supported by resilient demand and emerging supply concerns, particularly for copper.

“Prices for most base metals are expected to firm further in 2026 and 2027 as modest demand growth coincides with tightening supply conditions," World Bank says, adding that volatility remains a possibility in the next two years.

“While a range of upside risks could push metal prices above baseline projections—including possible production disruptions, new trade restrictions, and a faster than expected expansion of data centers—the overall balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.

Weaker than anticipated growth in major economies continues to pose the most significant risk to metal demand, World Bank adds, potentially keeping prices in check.

Among the seven metals in the index, World Bank predicts aluminium, nickel, tin and copper are expected to see the largest price increases during the next two years, with copper and tin projected to reach new record highs in nominal United States dollar terms.

The organization expects its base metal price index to increase by almost 2 percent during the two-year period, with previously mentioned supply constraints expected in the aluminium, copper and tin sectors.

“Subdued global growth, including in China, may temper the pace of demand expansion,” World Bank says.

Life Style and Management

Want a Winning Team? Start with Stellar Leadership!

Want a Winning Team? Start with Stellar Leadership

Ever heard of the story of the coach who turned a losing team into champions? It wasn’t just about strategit was the leader’s vision, trust, and support that made the difference. Here’s why high-performing leaders are game-changers:

1 Clear Vision Great leaders give their teams a clear direction and set goals that fire up everyone’s passion. Just like that coach who rallied his team with a clear goal, when the path is clear, the whole team marches with purpose.

2 Empowerment Top leaders trust their team and give them the freedom to shine. That same coach gave his players the freedom to make decisions on the field, turning potential into results and sparking innovation.

3 Support The best leaders are all about growth. They back their team with feedback and opportunities. The coach spent hours working one-on-one with players, turning individual skills into team triumphs.

4 Communication Leaders who communicate openly break down walls and build strong connections. Good vibes and teamwork followed that coach’s open-door policy, where every team member felt heard and valued.

5 Resilience A leader’s attitude shapes the team’s resilience. Facing challenges with a cool head and a positive outlook kept that team moving forward, no matter the setbacks.

6 RecognitionGreat leaders celebrate wins—big and small. The coach made sure to celebrate every victory, boosting morale and driving continuous success.
Your team’s greatness starts with your leadership.

Step up, inspire, and watch the magic happen—just like that coach did!

Jokes All the Way......

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The Institute of Indian Foundrymen